BTC Pulse

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How to read the dashboard (the SAFE flow)

Start with Regime: if the regime probability mass is strongly bearish, SAFE stays defensive even if opportunity is rising.
Check short-horizon price statistics: do we have momentum (autocorrelation) or mean reversion (rebound)?
Overlay on-chain: is the move driven by broad participation, or are whales stepping in/out?
Compute Target Exposure: SAFE “loads” exposure when expected payoff improves, but can still be vetoed by regime/hazard rules.

Indicators shown in the current BTC dashboard

The chart combines price candles with regime probabilities, short-horizon price statistics, SAFE exposure, and on-chain features. Below is a practical interpretation guide.

Line / Feature Scale How to interpret
UP_SLOW, UP_FAST
RANGE_LOWVOL, RANGE_HIGHVOL
DOWN_SLOW, DOWN_FAST		 0..1 probabilities Regime classifier output. When one state dominates (e.g., ~0.99), SAFE treats it as the market’s “operating mode”. Transitions (e.g., DOWN_SLOW → RANGE_LOWVOL) matter more than single-day wiggles.
P_Corr_10D ~ -1..+1 Short-horizon autocorrelation (a proxy for momentum vs noise). Near 0 suggests “memoryless” price action (weak trend edge).
P_Reb_10D 0..1 Estimated 10-day rebound likelihood / mean-reversion propensity. Low values imply weak bounce odds; rising values often appear before a stable range or recovery phase.
E_target_safe 0..1 SAFE target exposure (risk budget allocation). It can climb while regime remains bearish: that means “opportunity is building” but “confirmation is missing”.
OC_amount_log log scale Total on-chain transfer amount (log). High values = active network. Extreme spikes can accompany structural events; persistently low values can signal exhaustion/freeze.
OC_vol_z z-score Standardized on-chain volume. Negative = below long-term mean; deep negative often means participation is muted (not necessarily bullish or bearish, but informative with other features).
OC_whale_share 0..1 (often small) Share of activity attributed to large entities (whales). Rising whale share ahead of price can indicate accumulation/distribution; very low whale share suggests price is driven by smaller flows.
OC_dom_z z-score Dominance-like signal standardized. Negative = below average dominance/relative strength, often implying BTC is not “pulling liquidity” aggressively.