SAFE confirms continued operation inside the post-crash elastic regime, with Bitcoin making a fresh downside extension while volatility remains extremely elevated.

Compared to the prior reading:

• Price moved lower
• Medium-term trend deteriorated further
• Volatility compressed slightly, but remains extreme
• On-chain participation declined, though stayed structurally elevated
• Rebound elasticity remains near-maximal

SAFE classifies the market as post-shock, elastic, but still structurally dangerous, where statistical upside coexists with severe path risk.

Regime Assessment (HMM)

• Dominant regime: HMM_STATE_3
• Regime confidence: 99.9999%
• Estimated drift: +0.149% per day
• Estimated volatility: ~3.78% daily

SAFE remains in a fully converged post-crash regime. This regime historically corresponds to violent price paths, where mean reversion is common but timing is unreliable.

Price, Trend, and Positioning

• Close: 68,993.85 (down from 70,138.00)
• TS_50: -0.1500 -> Medium-term trend damage deepens further.
• Band width: 0.633 -> Volatility remains extreme, though slightly lower than the prior peak.
• Band position: 0.139 -> Price remains deep in the lower band.
• Range score: 0.0176 -> Market is fully non-range, dominated by directional stress.

Interpretation: This is a continuation of the stress phase, not stabilization.

Volatility and Short-Term Risk (10-day horizon)

Simulation count: 20,000

Upside touch probabilities

• +2%: 74.6%
• +5%: 58.6%
• +10%: 35.7%

Downside touch probabilities

• -2%: 68.3%
• -5%: 49.4%
• -10%: 24.5%

Upside elasticity remains dominant statistically, but downside tail risk is still material.

Correction vs Rebound Dynamics

• P_CORRECTION_10D (raw): 27.5%
• P_REBOUND_10D (raw): 31.2%

Calibrated probabilities

• P_CORRECTION_10D_CAL: 19.3%
• P_REBOUND_10D_CAL: 95.2%

Interpretation: SAFE continues to flag extreme rebound elasticity, though slightly reduced from the absolute peak. This reflects post-crash stretch, not safety or trend recovery.

On-Chain Activity and Structure

On-chain data shows cooling but still elevated participation:

Latest observations

• Total transferred amount: 953k (down ~15% day-over-day)
• Volume Z-score: +1.09
• Dominance Z-score: +0.66
• Whale transactions: 83 (down from 107)
• Mid-size transactions: 678 (down)

Interpretation: Large-actor participation declined but remains above baseline. This suggests temporary exhaustion, not disengagement.

SAFE Positioning Output (Informational)

• Target exposure: 35%
• Leverage: 1.0x
• Direction: Long-biased
• Conviction: 0.0

SAFE remains mechanically exposed but explicitly suppresses conviction due to regime risk.

Final Interpretation

SAFE currently describes the Bitcoin market as:

• Fully embedded in a post-crash elastic regime
• Experiencing continued downside stress
• Showing near-maximal rebound probability
• Supported by still-elevated on-chain participation
• Carrying very high path and volatility risk

In short: elastic but unstable, where statistical upside does not equate to safety.

SAFE is a statistical system. It does not predict outcomes or provide advice. It describes probabilistic market structure based on historical behavior.