SAFE confirms a continuation of the post-crash stress regime, with Bitcoin printing a new extreme low and volatility expanding to unprecedented levels in the current cycle.

The defining characteristics of this reading are:

• Full HMM regime convergence (STATE_3 at 100%)
• Maximum volatility expansion
• Extreme rebound elasticity
• Explosive on-chain participation, led by whales and mid-sized actors

SAFE classifies the market as being in a capitulation-elasticity regime, where statistical upside is very high, but path risk and instability dominate.

Regime Assessment (HMM)

• Dominant regime: HMM_STATE_3
• Regime confidence: 100.0%
• Estimated drift: +0.129% per day
• Estimated volatility: ~3.75% daily

This is a fully resolved regime state, not a transition. STATE_3 historically corresponds to post-crash, high-volatility environments with strong mean-reversion bias but unreliable price paths.

Price, Trend, and Positioning

• Close: 63,390.52
• TS_50: -0.2184 -> Medium-term trend damage is severe and accelerating.
• Band width: 0.7438 -> Volatility is at an extreme historical expansion.
• Band position: 0.000 -> Price sits at the absolute lower band extreme.
• Range score: 0.0019 -> Market is fully non-range, dominated by directional stress.

Interpretation: This is a deep capitulation zone, not a consolidation or trend-following environment.

Volatility and Short-Term Risk (10-day horizon)

Simulation count: 20,000

Upside touch probabilities

• +2%: 74.1%
• +5%: 57.9%
• +10%: 35.0%

Downside touch probabilities

• -2%: 68.7%
• -5%: 49.7%
• -10%: 24.8%

Upside probabilities dominate due to elastic mean reversion, but downside risk remains material and non-negligible.

Correction vs Rebound Dynamics

• P_CORRECTION_10D (raw): 32.2%
• P_REBOUND_10D (raw): 39.1%

Calibrated probabilities

• P_CORRECTION_10D_CAL: 1.75%
• P_REBOUND_10D_CAL: 100.0%

Interpretation: SAFE detects maximum rebound elasticity. This reflects statistical stretch, not safety or trend recovery.

On-Chain Activity and Structure

On-chain metrics show exceptional structural engagement:

Latest observations

• Total transferred amount: 1.81M
• Volume Z-score: +3.03
• Dominance Z-score: +2.54
• Whale transactions: 165
• Mid-size transactions: 1,769
• Whale share Z-score: +3.88

Interpretation: This is active, large-scale repositioning, not panic liquidation. Such configurations are typical of capitulation and early re-accumulation phases, but timing remains highly uncertain.

SAFE Positioning Output (Informational)

• Target exposure: 35%
• Leverage: 1.0x
• Direction: Long-biased
• Conviction: 0.0

SAFE maintains exposure mechanically, but explicitly suppresses conviction due to extreme regime risk.

Final Interpretation

SAFE currently describes the Bitcoin market as:

• Fully embedded in a post-crash elastic regime
• Exhibiting record volatility expansion
• Showing maximum statistical rebound potential
• Supported by very strong on-chain participation
• Carrying maximum path and regime risk

In short: highly elastic but extremely dangerous, where risk control outweighs signal strength.

SAFE is a statistical system. It does not predict outcomes or provide advice. It describes probabilistic market structure based on historical behavior.