SAFE identifies a structural downside break accompanied by regime instability. Price reached a new local low, volatility expanded, and the market shifted from a stable corrective regime into a fractured, mixed-regime state.

Unlike illiquid sell-offs, this move occurred with strong on-chain participation, signaling active repositioning under stress, not capitulation.

SAFE classifies the market as high-risk and regime-uncertain.

Regime Assessment (HMM)

• Dominant regime: HMM_STATE_3
• Regime confidence: 61.36%
• Secondary regime: HMM_STATE_2 (38.64%)
• Estimated drift (mixture): -0.115% per day
• Estimated volatility: ~2.93% daily

This is a clear loss of regime dominance, marking a transition phase. Historical regime-conditioned expectations are less reliable until dominance re-converges.

Price, Trend, and Positioning

• Close: 84,650.16 (down sharply from 89,299.99)
• TS_50: -0.0971 -> Medium-term trend deterioration accelerates.
• Band width: 0.353 -> Volatility expanded materially.
• Band position: 0.000 -> Price is at the absolute lower band extreme.
• Range score: 0.177 -> Market favors directional movement, not range behavior.

Interpretation: This is a structural downside break, not consolidation or orderly decay.

Volatility and Short-Term Risk (10-day horizon)

Simulation count: 20,000

Upside touch probabilities

• +2%: 66.5%
• +5%: 45.1%
• +10%: 20.8%

Downside touch probabilities

• -2%: 71.3%
• -5%: 49.4%
• -10%: 21.4%

Risk remains two-sided, but regime instability increases path dependency risk.

Correction vs Rebound Dynamics

• P_CORRECTION_10D (raw): 25.9%
• P_REBOUND_10D (raw): 27.7%

Calibrated probabilities

• P_CORRECTION_10D_CAL: 3.4%
• P_REBOUND_10D_CAL: 78.2%

Interpretation: SAFE flags extreme rebound elasticity, but in a regime-transition context, elasticity signals are less trustworthy than in stable regimes.

On-Chain Activity and Structure

On-chain metrics show strong, broad participation:

• Total transferred amount: 925,621
• Volume Z-score: +1.11
• Dominance Z-score: +0.13
• Whale transactions: 86
• Mid-size transactions: 713

Interpretation: Large and mid-size actors were actively involved during the sell-off, consistent with intentional reallocation, not forced liquidation.

SAFE Positioning Output (Informational)

• Target exposure: 35%
• Leverage: 1.0x
• Direction: Long-biased
• Conviction: 0.0

SAFE maintains baseline exposure mechanically, but asserts no directional conviction.

Final Interpretation

SAFE currently describes the Bitcoin market as:

• Entering a regime transition zone
• Experiencing a structural downside break
• Exhibiting high volatility and extreme elasticity
• Supported by active on-chain engagement
• Marked by maximum statistical uncertainty

In short: unstable, reactive, and regime-fractured, where risk management dominates signal-following.

SAFE is a statistical system. It does not predict outcomes or provide advice. It describes probabilistic market structure based on historical behavior.