Executive Summary

SAFE observes continued consolidation near the recent rebound zone, with Bitcoin trading broadly flat while remaining embedded in a dominant negative-drift regime.

Compared to the previous reading:

• Price is stable
• Medium-term trend weakens further (TS_50 more negative)
• On-chain participation strengthens, especially among whales
• Elasticity remains moderate, no longer extreme

SAFE interprets the market as structurally fragile but actively engaged, not trending, and not capitulating.

Regime Assessment (HMM)

• Dominant regime: HMM_STATE_2
• Regime confidence: ~98.5–99.2%
• Alternative regime (STATE_3): ~0.8–1.5%
• Estimated drift: −0.111% per day
• Estimated volatility: ~2.92% daily

The market remains in a corrective / distribution regime.
The rising weight of STATE_3 signals persistent instability, but not a confirmed transition.

Price, Trend & Positioning

• Close: 89,299.99 (≈ flat vs prior day)
• TS_50: −0.0478
  → Medium-term trend continues to deteriorate.
• Band width: 0.334
  → Volatility remains elevated.
• Band position: 0.153
  → Price is well below the band midpoint.
• Range score: 0.301
  → Market still favors movement, though not expansion.

Interpretation:
Price stability is occurring inside a bearish structure, consistent with consolidation rather than reversal.

Volatility & Short-Term Risk (10-day horizon)

Simulation count: 20,000

Upside touch probabilities

• +2%: 66.4%
• +5%: 45.1%
• +10%: 20.9%

Downside touch probabilities

• −2%: 71.2%
• −5%: 49.3%
• −10%: 21.2%

The distribution remains highly symmetric, indicating continued volatility with low directional edge.

Correction vs Rebound Dynamics

• P_CORRECTION_10D (raw): 23.8%
• P_REBOUND_10D (raw): 22.3%

Calibrated probabilities

• P_CORRECTION_10D_CAL: ~10.8–11.6%
• P_REBOUND_10D_CAL: ~12.9%

Interpretation:
Elasticity is balanced and compressed.
SAFE no longer detects extreme stretch—suggesting the market has absorbed prior shocks.

On-Chain Activity & Structure

On-chain metrics show strengthening engagement:

Latest observations

• Total transferred amount: ~715k
• Volume Z-score: +0.33
• Dominance Z-score: positive
• Whale transactions: 88 (↑)
• Whale share Z-score: strongly positive (> +1.3)

Interpretation:
Whale presence has increased materially, alongside improving dominance.
This suggests active positioning, not passive churn, though still short of decisive accumulation confirmation.

SAFE Positioning Output (Informational)

• Target exposure: ~35%
• Leverage: 1.0×
• Direction: Long-biased
• Entry step: 0.0
• Conviction: ~0

SAFE remains mechanically long, but asserts no directional confidence.

Final Interpretation

SAFE currently describes the Bitcoin market as:

• Firmly inside a negative-drift, high-volatility regime
• Experiencing sideways consolidation
• Showing normalized elasticity
• Supported by rising on-chain engagement
• Remaining fragile and directionally unresolved

In short: volatile, engaged, and undecided, with participation rising but no regime shift.

SAFE is a statistical system. It does not predict outcomes, provide advice, or express opinions. It describes probabilistic market structure based on historical behavior.