SAFE observes a continuation of the corrective phase, with Bitcoin making a new marginal low while remaining firmly inside the dominant negative-drift regime.

Compared to the previous day, the market shows:

• Slightly lower price
• Further weakening of medium-term trend
• Persistently depressed on-chain activity
• Very strong rebound elasticity, statistically

SAFE characterizes the current environment as deeply stretched but structurally fragile, with elevated mean-reversion potential but no confirmed trend reversal.

Regime Assessment (HMM)

• Dominant regime: HMM_STATE_2
• Regime confidence: 99.6-99.7%
• Estimated drift: -0.112% per day
• Estimated volatility: ~2.92% daily

The market remains locked in a corrective / distribution regime. Minor weight in alternative regimes (STATE_3 ~ 0.3-0.4%) signals instability, but not a transition.

Price, Trend, and Positioning

• Close: 88,540.00 (down from 89,225.34)
• TS_50: -0.0103 -> Medium-term trend remains negative and deteriorating.
• Band width: 0.337 -> Volatility remains elevated.
• Band position: 0.127 -> Price sits deep in the lower tail of the band.
• Range score: 0.386 -> Market continues to favor movement over consolidation.

Interpretation: Price continues to grind lower without volatility collapse, consistent with a late corrective extension rather than panic selling.

Volatility and Short-Term Risk (10-day horizon)

Simulation count: 20,000

Upside touch probabilities

• +2%: 66.6%
• +5%: 45.1%
• +10%: 20.9%

Downside touch probabilities

• -2%: 71.3%
• -5%: 49.3%
• -10%: 21.3%

Risk remains broadly symmetric, implying high movement potential with weak directional separation.

Correction vs Rebound Dynamics

• P_CORRECTION_10D (raw): 26.5%
• P_REBOUND_10D (raw): 27.8%

Calibrated probabilities

• P_CORRECTION_10D_CAL: 2.8%
• P_REBOUND_10D_CAL: 78.6%

Interpretation: SAFE continues to flag extreme rebound elasticity. Statistically, the market is highly stretched, favoring short-term mean reversion rather than further smooth downside.

This does not imply a structural bottom, only elevated reactivity.

On-Chain Activity and Structure

On-chain metrics remain weak and uneven:

Latest observations

• Total transferred amount: 372k (low)
• Volume Z-score: -1.63
• Dominance Z-score: -0.39
• Whale transactions: 13 (very low)
• Mid-size transactions: 168 (low)

Interpretation: Participation remains subdued, especially among whales. The absence of strong structural sponsorship suggests that any rebound may be reactive rather than accumulative.

SAFE Positioning Output (Informational)

• Target exposure: ~35%
• Leverage: 1.0x
• Direction: Long-biased
• Entry step: 0.0
• Conviction: 0.0

SAFE remains mechanically long, but with zero conviction, reflecting maximum uncertainty.

Final Interpretation

SAFE currently describes the Bitcoin market as:

• Firmly inside a negative-drift, high-volatility regime
• Experiencing continued corrective pressure
• Deeply stretched statistically
• Lacking strong on-chain confirmation
• Operating in a fragile, reactive state

In short: stretched, volatile, and structurally weak, with rebound potential but no confirmed regime shift.

SAFE is a statistical system. It does not predict outcomes, provide advice, or express opinions. It describes probabilistic market structure based on historical behavior.