SAFE indicates that Bitcoin remains locked in the same high-confidence negative-drift regime, while price continues to decline.
The notable change versus the previous day is a partial rebound in on-chain activity, even as price and trend strength weaken further.

This combination points to a market that is still fragile and volatile, but where participation has tentatively returned without yet translating into directional conviction.

Regime Assessment (HMM)

• Dominant regime: HMM_STATE_2
• Regime confidence: 99.96%
• Estimated drift: -0.108% per day
• Estimated volatility: ~2.92% daily

SAFE continues to classify the market as being in a distribution / corrective regime.
Price action remains active, but trend persistence is statistically weak and regime transition pressure remains negligible.

Price, Trend, and Positioning

• Close: 92,631.00 (down from 93,673.14)
• TS_50: 0.0277 (down from 0.0348)
  -> Medium-term trend is still positive, but continues to decay.
• Band width: 0.328
  -> Volatility remains elevated and stable.
• Band position: 0.259
  -> Price has moved deeper into the lower band region.
• Range score: 0.352
  -> Market favors range expansion over consolidation.

Interpretation:
Price weakness is persistent and orderly, consistent with a slow distribution process, not capitulation.

Volatility and Short-Term Risk (10-day horizon)

Simulation count: 20,000

Upside touch probabilities

• +2%: 66.8%
• +5%: 45.2%
• +10%: 20.8%

Downside touch probabilities

• -2%: 71.3%
• -5%: 49.1%
• -10%: 21.1%

Downside probabilities remain slightly dominant, but overall risk remains broadly symmetric, implying high movement with low directional clarity.

Correction vs Rebound Dynamics

• P_CORRECTION_10D (raw): 22.1%
• P_REBOUND_10D (raw): 25.1%

Calibrated probabilities

• P_CORRECTION_10D_CAL: 6.0%
• P_REBOUND_10D_CAL: 23.6%

Interpretation:
Calibration shows a strong rebound skew, a clear shift from prior days.
SAFE interprets this as short-term elastic potential, but not yet a regime change, more likely reactive upside than structural reversal.

On-Chain Activity and Structure

On-chain data shows a notable rebound in activity, especially relative to the prior day’s depressed levels:

Day-over-day changes

• Total transferred amount: up ~92%
• Volume Z-score: -1.82 to +0.18
• Dominance Z-score: -2.24 to -0.56

Transaction counts

• Whale transactions: 27 (slightly lower, still muted)
• Mid-size transactions: 460 (up sharply)
• Small transactions: 354,108 (up)

Interpretation:
While whale activity remains subdued, the recovery in mid-size and overall volume suggests renewed participation.
However, dominance remains negative, indicating that large structural actors are not yet leading.

SAFE Positioning Output (Informational)

• Target exposure: ~35%
• Leverage: 1.0x
• Direction: Long-biased
• Entry step: 0.0
• Conviction: ~0 (~4e-06)

SAFE remains mechanically long, but conviction is effectively absent, signaling participation without asserted edge.

Final Interpretation

SAFE currently describes the Bitcoin market as:

• Firmly locked in a negative-drift, high-volatility regime
• Experiencing continued price and trend decay
• Showing a partial rebound in on-chain participation
• Exhibiting short-term rebound asymmetry, but no structural confirmation
• Remaining low-conviction and statistically undecided

In short: volatile, fragile, and reactive, with improving participation but no confirmed directional shift.

SAFE is a statistical system. It does not predict outcomes, provide advice, or express opinions. It describes probabilistic market structure based on historical behavior.