SAFE describes the Bitcoin market as remaining in a high-confidence negative-drift regime, while both price and on-chain participation continue to contract.

Compared to the previous day, SAFE observes:

• A clear price decline
• Further weakening of trend strength
• A material drop in on-chain volume and dominance
• Persistently symmetric short-term risk

Despite strong regime confidence, conviction remains effectively zero, indicating a market that is volatile but statistically low-signal.

Regime Assessment (HMM)

• Dominant regime: HMM_STATE_2
• Regime confidence: 99.98%
• Estimated drift: -0.108% per day
• Estimated volatility: ~2.92% daily

SAFE continues to classify the market as being in a distribution / corrective regime, where price activity is elevated but directional persistence is weak.

No meaningful pressure toward a regime transition is detected.

Price, Trend, and Positioning

• Close: 93,673.14 (down from 95,147.77)
• TS_50: 0.0348 (down from 0.0516)
  -> Medium-term trend remains positive, but is eroding rapidly.
• Band width: 0.325
  -> Volatility remains elevated and stable.
• Band position: 0.294
  -> Price sits in the lower third of its recent range.
• Range score: 0.339
  -> Market favors range expansion, not compression.

Interpretation:
Price weakness is progressing without volatility escalation, consistent with a slow decay / distributional process, not panic selling.

Volatility and Short-Term Risk (10-day horizon)

Simulation count: 20,000

Upside touch probabilities

• +2%: 66.7%
• +5%: 45.4%
• +10%: 20.8%

Downside touch probabilities

• -2%: 71.1%
• -5%: 49.2%
• -10%: 21.1%

Downside probabilities remain modestly higher, but overall risk is broadly symmetric, implying movement without strong directional clarity.

Correction vs Rebound Dynamics

• P_CORRECTION_10D (raw): 23.2%
• P_REBOUND_10D (raw): 25.4%

Calibrated probabilities

• P_CORRECTION_10D_CAL: 10.9%
• P_REBOUND_10D_CAL: 11.4%

Interpretation:
After calibration, rebound and correction risks are nearly balanced, indicating limited asymmetry. SAFE does not observe strong downside acceleration, but also no reliable upside elasticity.

On-Chain Activity and Structure

On-chain data confirms a continued and deepening contraction in participation:

Day-over-day changes

• Total transferred amount: down 37%
• On-chain dominance: down materially
• Volume Z-score: -1.82
• Dominance Z-score: -2.24

Transaction counts

• Whale transactions: 29 (flat, very low)
• Mid-size transactions: 177 (down sharply)
• Small transactions: 332,320 (down)

Interpretation:
Both volume and dominance are deeply negative in Z-score terms, signaling a lack of large-actor sponsorship.
This typically coincides with fragile price discovery and increased sensitivity to marginal flows.

SAFE Positioning Output (Informational)

• Target exposure: ~35%
• Leverage: 1.0x
• Direction: Long-biased
• Entry step: 0.0
• Conviction: ~0 (2.7e-05)

SAFE remains mechanically long, but conviction is effectively absent, indicating participation without asserted edge.

Final Interpretation

SAFE currently describes the Bitcoin market as:

• Firmly locked in a negative-drift, high-volatility regime
• Experiencing weakening trend and falling price
• Showing clear contraction in on-chain participation
• Exhibiting high probability of movement but low directional confidence

In short: volatile, fragile, and statistically undecided, with a mild downside bias but no crash signal.

SAFE is a statistical system. It does not predict outcomes, provide advice, or express opinions. It describes probabilistic market structure based on historical behavior.