Price slipped from 91,099.99 to 90,641.28 while remaining in the lower band zone (band_pos 0.16 to 0.15).
The HMM regime mix tilted further toward range-lowvol (0.58 to 0.77) and away from down-fast (0.39 to 0.12), suggesting less downside intensity even as price drifted lower.

Short-horizon stats also leaned toward mean reversion: P_Rebound_10D rose slightly above P_Correction_10D, and the calibrated touch table shows a two-sided profile over 10 days (up +2%: 72%, down -2%: 62%; +5%: 51% vs -5%: 39%).
Exposure guidance eased (E_target_safe 0.51 to 0.49) and conviction stayed low, consistent with a cautious, range-aware stance.

On-chain activity stabilized but remained muted: total amount ticked up and vol z-score improved (0.23 to 0.49), while whale share z-score slipped slightly below zero. Net signal: participation is not expanding aggressively yet.

Near-term expectation: range conditions likely persist unless on-chain volume and whale dominance accelerate meaningfully.
The balance of touch probabilities argues for patience and tighter risk sizing rather than directional conviction.

=== SAFE Touch Probabilities (calibrated) ===
Eval date (price anchor): 2026-01-09 | close=90,641.28
Conditioning SAFE date: 2026-01-08

Regime probs (conditioning):
P_UP_SLOW_HMM : 0.0000
P_UP_FAST_HMM : 0.0000
P_RANGE_LOWVOL_HMM : 0.5759
P_RANGE_HIGHVOL_HMM : 0.0000
P_DOWN_SLOW_HMM : 0.0375
P_DOWN_FAST_HMM : 0.3866

Calibrated mixture params (daily log-return):
mu = +0.001356 (~+0.136% per day)
sigma = 0.026875 (~2.687% daily)

— Touch probabilities within horizon —
Horizon: 10 days | sims: 20000

UP targets:
+2%: 72.2%
+5%: 50.8%
+10%: 24.4%
DOWN targets:
-2%: 62.4%
-5%: 38.7%
-10%: 13.0%

— Calibration per regime (mu, sigma, weight_sum) —
P_UP_SLOW_HMM mu=+0.001055 sigma=0.025629 wsum=480.2
P_UP_FAST_HMM mu=+0.003245 sigma=0.035042 wsum=343.3
P_RANGE_LOWVOL_HMM mu=+0.000002 sigma=0.022145 wsum=416.1
P_RANGE_HIGHVOL_HMM mu=-0.000385 sigma=0.030473 wsum=446.1
P_DOWN_SLOW_HMM mu=+0.000770 sigma=0.037607 wsum=452.2
P_DOWN_FAST_HMM mu=+0.003429 sigma=0.031520 wsum=181.1