Over the last two sessions, on-chain activity cooled materially while price held near the lower part of its band.
Total on-chain amount fell from ~1.00M to ~0.69M, the volume z-score dropped from 1.37 to 0.23, and whale share normalized (whale share z-score from 0.81 to 0.02).
This looks less like acute distribution and more like a pause in participation.

Regime probabilities shifted toward range: HMM range-lowvol rose (0.37 to 0.58), while HMM down-fast eased (0.61 to 0.39).
Band position stayed low (0.166 to 0.159), suggesting price remains in a lower-band zone, but without fresh downside acceleration.
Exposure guidance softened (E_target_safe 0.58 to 0.51), reflecting reduced conviction.

Near-term expectation: a choppy, range-leaning phase unless participation re-accelerates. If on-chain volume and dominance stay muted, the model likely favors patience over aggressive adds; if volume and whale dominance re-expand, risk of a sharper move (either rebound or renewed downside) rises.

=== SAFE Touch Probabilities (calibrated) ===
Eval date (price anchor): 2026-01-08 | close=91,099.99
Conditioning SAFE date: 2026-01-07

Regime probs (conditioning):
P_UP_SLOW_HMM : 0.0000
P_UP_FAST_HMM : 0.0000
P_RANGE_LOWVOL_HMM : 0.3742
P_RANGE_HIGHVOL_HMM : 0.0000
P_DOWN_SLOW_HMM : 0.0109
P_DOWN_FAST_HMM : 0.6148

Calibrated mixture params (daily log-return):
mu = +0.002130 (~+0.213% per day)
sigma = 0.028517 (~2.852% daily)

— Touch probabilities within horizon —
Horizon: 10 days | sims: 20000

UP targets:
+2%: 74.9%
+5%: 55.4%
+10%: 29.3%
DOWN targets:
-2%: 61.4%
-5%: 38.2%
-10%: 13.4%

— Calibration per regime (mu, sigma, weight_sum) —
P_UP_SLOW_HMM mu=+0.001055 sigma=0.025629 wsum=480.2
P_UP_FAST_HMM mu=+0.003245 sigma=0.035042 wsum=343.3
P_RANGE_LOWVOL_HMM mu=+0.000012 sigma=0.022165 wsum=415.3
P_RANGE_HIGHVOL_HMM mu=-0.000385 sigma=0.030473 wsum=446.1
P_DOWN_SLOW_HMM mu=+0.000771 sigma=0.037612 wsum=452.1
P_DOWN_FAST_HMM mu=+0.003443 sigma=0.031529 wsum=181.0