SAFE confirms continued operation inside the post-crash elastic regime, with Bitcoin making a fresh downside extension while volatility remains extremely elevated. Compared to ...

SAFE confirms a continuation of the post-crash stress regime, with Bitcoin printing a new extreme low and volatility expanding to unprecedented levels in the current cycle. The...

SAFE identifies a full regime transition into an extreme stress-elasticity state. Bitcoin experienced a deep downside continuation followed by an initial rebound, while the Hidd...

SAFE identifies a structural downside break accompanied by regime instability. Price reached a new local low, volatility expanded, and the market shifted from a stable correctiv...

Executive Summary SAFE observes continued consolidation near the recent rebound zone, with Bitcoin trading broadly flat while remaining embedded in a dominant negative-drift re...

SAFE observes a sharp intraday downside followed by a partial rebound, with Bitcoin remaining firmly inside the dominant negative-drift regime. While price rebounded from the lo...

SAFE observes a continuation of the corrective phase, with Bitcoin making a new marginal low while remaining firmly inside the dominant negative-drift regime. Compared to the p...

SAFE observes a stabilization attempt after the recent sell-off, with Bitcoin trading higher than the prior local low, but still embedded in a dominant negative-drift regime. W...

SAFE registers a sharp downside continuation in price, while the market remains locked in the same dominant negative-drift regime. Unlike the prior day, the price drop on 2026-0...

SAFE indicates that Bitcoin remains locked in the same high-confidence negative-drift regime, while price continues to decline. The notable change versus the previous day is a p...

SAFE describes the Bitcoin market as remaining in a high-confidence negative-drift regime, while both price and on-chain participation continue to contract. Compared to the pre...

SAFE characterizes the current Bitcoin market as remaining in a high-confidence negative-drift regime, with declining participation and weakening structural support. Compared t...

SAFE currently describes the Bitcoin market as being in a dominant negative-drift regime with elevated volatility, but without acute stress signals. The market is structurally b...

We have made a major upgrade to the SAFE engine. Until now, price touch probabilities (+2%, +5%, +/-10% in N days) were calculated assuming an “average” distribution of returns...

Price slipped from 91,099.99 to 90,641.28 while remaining in the lower band zone (band_pos 0.16 to 0.15). The HMM regime mix tilted further toward range-lowvol (0.58 to 0.77) an...

Over the last two sessions, on-chain activity cooled materially while price held near the lower part of its band. Total on-chain amount fell from ~1.00M to ~0.69M, the volume z-...

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