SAFE Statistical Asset Flow Engine - probabilistic regimes + hazard + exposure

SAFE: a context engine for BTC risk decisions

SAFE is not a price predictor and not a signal generator. It summarizes the current market context as probabilities and converts that context into a target exposure level. The core question is: "How much risk makes sense right now?"

SAFE in one paragraph

SAFE treats BTC as a living system whose behavior changes over time. It estimates probabilistic regimes, combines them with risk features (volatility, trend stress, hazard), and produces a continuous target exposure between 0 and 1. The dashboard is built for understanding and risk control, not for impulsive trading.

A simple analogy

Think of price as the road and SAFE as the weather plus road conditions. It does not tell you the exact destination, but it tells you whether conditions are safe enough to drive fast or whether you should slow down.

What SAFE does and does not do

What it does

Describes market context, reduces risk in dangerous periods, and stays transparent through auditable indicators.

What it does not do

It does not promise to beat buy and hold, it does not call tops or bottoms, and it does not generate buy or sell signals.

How to read SAFE outputs

The operational output is a target exposure (0..1) and a simple action label (NO ACTION, INCREASE, DECREASE). Adjustments are gradual, and the current bias is long-only with risk throttling.

Regimes shown in the dashboard

Regime	Meaning	Typical context
CORE	Stable, normal market behavior	Lower noise, steady conditions
DRIFT	Stable but gently directional	Soft trend without strong conviction
SURGE	Strong move with high volatility	Fast repricing, momentum-driven
SHOCK	Stress regime, elevated volatility	Risk-off conditions, drawdown risk

Markets often contain multiple regimes at once. SAFE shows them as probabilities, not hard switches.

High-level pipeline

1) Features: returns, volatility, trend, stress

2) Regimes: probabilistic state estimates (HMM)

3) Hazard: event risk of adverse moves

4) Exposure: capital-aware target allocation

Design principles

Calibrated probabilities over pretty scores

Regime awareness over single indicators

Auditability over black-box ML

Disclaimer

SAFE is a research and engineering framework. It is not financial advice. Any strategy built on top of SAFE should include robust risk controls and out-of-sample validation.